Meta Q3 2026 earnings
Chance: EPS above $6.39
| When | Chance |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 9:01 PM ET (opened) | 50% |
| Oct 14, 12:09 AM ET | 50% |
| Oct 15, 1:26 AM ET (now) | 50% |
Conditions on Meta's EPS
Rules
This condition is met if Meta's diluted earnings per share as reported under GAAP for Q3 2026 (the period ending 2026-09-30), as published in its earnings release filed with the SEC, is above $6.39. Exactly $6.39 does not count. Meta publishes no adjusted figure, so the reported number decides, one-off items included.
The threshold was sealed on chain on Oct 14, 2026 and cannot change. Sealing transaction: 0xfa45...a772.
Trading freezes at the announcement, . After the release, the figure is proposed on chain with a bond of $10.00 and can be challenged for 10 minutes. A Chainlink workflow that reads the filing is one proposer; anyone can propose or challenge. A challenge goes to the arbiter (0xCf85...b873), who has 2 hours to rule. Then holders redeem.
If the figure cannot be settled within 1 day after the deadline, the market resolves invalid and every holder gets half of what they hold in each world: half the shares and half the dollars kept beside them.
Resolution
No figure has been proposed yet. Not settled yet.
What could go wrong
On the Monad Testnet, the shares are test tokens minted by our deployer and have no value. A guardian (0x50b4...e698) can freeze trading early if something breaks. The company could report late or restate its figure, and a challenge delays settlement. If few people take the other side, you may not get the size you want.