Disclosures
What you are using, what can go wrong, and who can do what. Every figure on this page is read from the deployment when it loads.
What this is
- This runs on the Monad Testnet. The dollars are test dollars and the shares are test tokens minted by our deployer, with no real value; nothing can be cashed out.
- The companies and their earnings dates are real; the tokens named after their stock are not their stock and are not issued or endorsed by them.
- This is not investment advice, an offer or a recommendation.
- There is no product fee. Each purchase pays the pools' fee, shown in the ticket before you sign.
- Prices, chances, amounts and the stock price on the market pages are read from the test network's pools, vaults and price feed when each page loads.
Thresholds, chances and freezes
Each threshold is sealed on chain before its market opens and cannot change. A condition is met only if the reported figure is above the threshold; exactly the threshold does not count. The chance is what current prices imply, not a forecast of ours. Buying and undoing stop at the freeze, which is the announcement time.
Meta Q3 2026 earnings
Freezes -
| Reported figure above | Implied chance | Sealed |
|---|---|---|
| $5.51 | 75% | Oct 14, 2026, 0xb9f6...7416 |
| $6.39 | 50% | Oct 14, 2026, 0xfa45...a772 |
| $7.27 | 25% | Oct 14, 2026, 0x116c...34c4 |
| $8.15 | 10% | Oct 14, 2026, 0x47ac...e49b |
Tesla Q3 2026 earnings
Freezes -
| Reported figure above | Implied chance | Sealed |
|---|---|---|
| $0.38 | 75% | Oct 14, 2026, 0xe936...126a |
| $0.43 | 50% | Oct 14, 2026, 0xe49f...4148 |
| $0.48 | 25% | Oct 14, 2026, 0xf87f...3d43 |
| $0.53 | 11% | Oct 14, 2026, 0x1ddd...602a |
How an outcome is decided
After the company files its earnings release with the SEC, an automated Chainlink workflow reads the figure from that filing and proposes it on chain with a bond of $10.00 test dollars. Anyone else may propose too. For 10 minutes anyone can challenge the figure by posting a bond. A challenge goes to the arbiter, who has 2 hours to rule. If nothing can be settled within 1 day after the deadline, the market resolves invalid and every holder gets half of what they hold in each world: half the shares and half the dollars kept beside them.
Who holds the keys
A few accounts have powers ordinary holders do not. On this test deployment each of them is a 1-of-1 multisig wallet, and the sealer, guardian, arbiter, treasury are all controlled by one key (0xD521...8fca). Whoever holds that key could freeze a market early, or, as arbiter, rule a challenged figure wrongly. No account can change a sealed threshold or take a holder's position.
| Role | What it can do | Account |
|---|---|---|
| sealer | Seals each event's thresholds before it opens. Once sealed, a threshold cannot be changed by anyone, the sealer included. | 0x0cF9...0ffA 1 of 1 |
| guardian | Can bring a market's freeze forward to now, stopping new purchases and undos, if something breaks. It cannot move money or change an outcome. | 0x50b4...e698 1 of 1 |
| arbiter | Rules on a challenged figure, or rules the event invalid. If it does not rule within its time limit, the event resolves invalid and every holder gets half of what they hold in each world: half the shares and half the dollars kept beside them. | 0xCf85...b873 1 of 1 |
| treasury | Receives the bonds that settled proposals leave behind. It holds no one's position. | 0x5FEf...7Bae 1 of 1 |
| keeper | Our own trading account. While the stock's price feed is fresh (published within the last 25 minutes) and the market is not frozen, it trades in the pools whenever a market's implied share price drifts more than 1% below the feed's bid or above its ask; when the feed is older, as outside market hours, it does nothing. It also makes the routine calls anyone may make. The contracts give it no special power. | 0x1cda...46e1 1 of 1 |
Contracts
- Sealed thresholds (no owner, cannot be edited)0x3c90...25cE
- Proposals, challenges and outcomes0xcB4c...40ad
- The freeze at the announcement0x1E6e...a080
- Creates each market0x9FE3...f43C
- Buys and undos0x80b3...5a35
- The test dollar0x1125...13E7
What could go wrong
- The contracts are new and have not been audited. A bug could lock or lose test funds.
- The company could report late, restate its figure, or publish it in a way that is ambiguous. A challenge delays settlement; an event that cannot be settled resolves invalid.
- The arbiter is one party on this deployment. A wrong ruling would pay the wrong side.
- If few people take the other side, you may not get the size or price you want, and undoing before the freeze may return less than you put in.
- The share price you end with after the announcement can be lower than what you paid for it.